Statistics on agricultural machinery use

[Keith Fuglie]

I work as an economic research for the U.S. Department of Agriculture and am doing a study on long-run changes in global agricultural productivity. The primary data source for agricultural outputs and inputs for different countries of the world is FAOSTAT. Those of you who are familiar with this dataset will know it limitations. One important limitation is its coverage of agricultural machinery use. FAOSTAT appears to have fairly complete historical estimates of 4-wheel and crawler tractors in use on farms, but it discontinued its series on use of 2-wheel tractors around 1970. Recently they have begun to record some data on two-wheel tractors, but coverage is very spotty. Is anyone aware of other data sources that contain information on historical farm machinery use for individual countries? I am particularly interested in the diffusion of power tillers in Asia, which seems to have accelerated in recent years with the availabilty of lower cost machines from China. Better data could help raise awareness among policy makers of the important role that mechanization icontinues to play in improving agricultural productivity.
Keith Fuglie

[Jeff Esdaile]

Keith,
I obtained some rough figures on world wide production of two wheel tractors,(power tillers) when I started the power tiller seed drill project a couple of years ago.
Around 500,000 power tillers are manufactured annually around the world. Most are made in China (Dong Feng) with Thailand also being a significant manufacturer (Siam Kubota). India has some manufacturers (some are just assemblers) . The main one is VST group. There is also Yanmar from Japan. Have a look at http://www.tractorbynet.com/forums/2-wheeled-tractors/132164-curren....
There are 300,000 units currently working in Bangladesh which I think is the worlds biggest market. Also they are used in Cambodia, Lao PDR, Vietnam, Myanmar, Indonesia, Philippines, Sri Lanka, India (mainly Eastern part), Nepal, Bhutan, Southern China and Central and South America. They are now beginning to appear in the Caribbean, and both East and West Africa.
The Chinese ones mostly come with a rotary tiller as standard. Soil inversion implements are freely available. However conservation agriculture implements are not available, and that is where the ACIAR project comes in.
I think the Bangladesh Govt. has some figures on the numbers there, including some historical data, but I am not sure where you find them. I think a good Google search may turn up something.
A 12HP power tiller in Bangladesh costs about $US1200-1250 and has a service life of 8 years.
In many areas they are taking over from animal traction where the farmers can afford them. Animals must be fed all year round (including the off season) whereas power tillers do not compete for food with small farmers.
I know that India ( and perhaps some other countries) used to have a subsidy program for purchase by small farmers. Also they may qualify for micro-loans.
If I come across some of the websites I will let you know.

[Victor Chen]

Thank you,
This messange gave me some info about power tiller.
Thanks,
Shangdong Pengrun Industry Developing Co.,Ltd.
Add.: SINOLOOK Building-D2207, Dongfeng East Street, Weifang Shandong, China 261041
Tel: [phone], Fax: [phone]
E-mail: [e-mail]
URL: http://www.prtractor.com

[Victor Chen]

Dear Jeff,

Yes,Bangladesh is a large market not only power tillers,but also diesel generator set.

http://www.prtractor.com/En_ArticleShow.asp?ArticleID=98"/>

[Jaideep Merchant]

Jeff,
I am an equity research analyst based in India and currently studying the market for tillers and rice transplanters in India. Unfortunately i am unable to fund the market size for these products in India the largest company in the sector is VST Tillers and last year they sold close to 17000 tillers and 460 rice planters. Given the large size of the agricultural sector in India I assumed the market for these products is good. Can you share with me your thoughts and the prospects of both these products in India as the government has been allocating huge resources in trying to reform the sector and to increase productivity. What do you think are the prospects of these products in India given the low level of mechanization of farms here.

[Scott E. Justice]

Jaideep,
Its a very interesting and dynamic situation that needs much more analysis, so i am very pleased to hear about yoru work and look forward to seeing any outputs / pulbications. Under an earlier program we attempted to set up a network of two-wheel tractor (2WT) importers and manufacturers in India. A couple of meetings were held in Kolkatta and were well attended but the network feel apart once the funding of the project finished. I believe I have a report of the meeting(s?) somewhere and would be happy to email it to you to you. Prima face the 2WT market in India is organized but I have found that there is a sizable informal sector importing tractors on the side and enven considerable black marketing of 2WTs from neighboring countries . And there is evidence that government subsidies have worsened access to 2WTs by actually driving up the prices of the locally manufactured and imported tractors. The Japan-Indian collaborations of which only two survived have been hit hard by CHinese 2WTs and are even now offering their own brands of Chinese 2WTs. The four-wheel tractor industry feeling the threat of the 2WTs have pushed for unreasonable alterations/changes for safety considerations of their choosing.

[Aditya Podar]

Hi Jaideep,

I am Aditya podar. I have heavily invested in VST tiller tractors. I started acquiring this company in large chunks from 135 all the way up to 190. Now i am holding 20000 shares at an avg if 177/share. I have studied the company extensively & from its management i get the hint that the company is going to be the leader in the tiller & tractor segment going forward. I am betting that this company could be a takeover candidate just like M&M took over punjab tractors. The company has Rs 24 per share in cash (Mar 09 end) & 20 acres of land at Whitefield road in bangalore out of which they are using only 10 acres or so (apprx 3 crs per acre as its prime IT location) works out to Rs 60/share as land. So you are getting the share for 321 (cmp 405 less 84). The p/e works out to be 321 / 50.20 eps equals 6.40 times on a 218 crore mcap. This is a no brainer & i think with p/e expansion & no FII currently holding it, can we expect at least a 5 bagger here. I have picked this stock after doing my own research.
It would be a pleasure if you could share your inputs on the same.

[Trevor Cree]

Keith,

Welcome to the Global Farm Machinery Network. Since China is the largest manufacturer of two wheel tractors you might try contacting Prof. GAO Yuan’en who is Chairman of the China Association of Agricultural Machinery Manufacturers. Tel: [phone]. Fax: [phone]
Email: [e-mail], [e-mail]
Another option might be to consult the UNAPCAEM (http://www.unapcaem.org/cp_index.htm) Country Pages and click on Presentations, or the Universities/Associations links. You may find the names of useful contact persons within individual Asian countries.
It might also be worth keeping in mind that the very small four wheel tractors (<20 h.p.) are widely used in China for rural transport and cultivation. These are also primarily manufactured in China.

Regards,

Trevor.

[Trevor Cree]

Keith,

There are a number of market research companies who sell expensive studies on the global farm equipment industry. You may find some examples on http://www.agmachine.com/farmequipmentmar.html It may be possible to buy individual sections of interest.
Another recent report can be found at (http://www.researchandmarkets.com/reportinfo.asp?report_id=660470). However two wheel tractors may not be covered by these studies,

Regards,

Trevor.

[doug asker]

Hey, don’t ask me how I came upon this but YouTube.com have launched a new website just fort tractors..don’t you just love the internet? its at http://www.YouTractor.com

[Scott E. Justice]

Hey Keith,
Very good that you are doing this we will be very interested to see your product!
My colleagues and I have written a bit about the general mechanization processes in and 2WT in south Asia. Slowly I have come back to the theory of horsepower poverty that is prevalent in subsistence agriculture. I think that if you are looking at 2-wheel tractor adoption in south Asia you also have to look at low lift small horsepower (3-12HP) engines/pumpsets and their role not just in lifting water but use in threshing, winnowing, milling, etc. In Bangladesh I think you will find that these pumpsets preceded tractors by a few years, and even paved the way for widespread 2-wheel tractors. And currently for every Chinese 2-wheel tractor imported into Bangladesh there are 4-5 Chinese engines bound for pumping, milling etc. The same for here in Nepal. I will be interested to hear more about the research you are doing.

[Keith Fuglie]

Scott,
Thanks for your reply. This is an important point. What impressed me most from the papers you sent me was on the multiple functions of the diesel engines associated with the water pump sets - how they were being used not only for lifting water but also for driving threshers, etc. It reminds me of my first trip to Nepal back in the 1980s when I saw how power tillers had been converted for rural transportation, which seemed to be their main application at that time.
Best regards,
Keith

[Graham Edwards]

My bible which guides me through the world of farm tractors is that which was published by joseph lucas[John MAY] 7 is called "world tractor market 1970-2010".It was published in 1979.....JOHN,please come back.The world of tractors in the Former Soviet Union was a part of work done under Prof.Hill at Cranfield,UK but 400000 farm tractors disappeared[closing factories]from the world market.Statistics are good for India[300000 p.a.]but growth in Pakistan,Iran & fluctuations in Turkey do mean that cotact between UKs AEA[Chris.Davis]& members of this discussion group are very necessary.If food production is to grow [double its size]by 2050 and ,in India 2025.....Tractors have to change.Less water,soil-compaction & rising fuel-cost plus peak-oil mean very different concepts of tractor in which a massive distinction needs to be made between work-tasks & Ag-implements for low-draught work and the convention of 2more weight is better"..........What a foolish farming world we live in and tolerate GRAHAM